Commercial Claims Are Likely to Decline in 2020, Spike in 2021

A previous version of this article incorrectly stated Cori Uccello’s title. She is a senior health fellow with the American Academy of Actuaries. This version has been updated.

An analysis by actuarial firm Milliman Inc. projects that net spending by the health insurance industry during the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to fall through the rest of 2020, but that pent-up demand for health care services — and potentially deteriorated population health due to delayed care — will likely drive a sharp escalation in costs in 2021. Patients have been obliged to defer elective and non-emergency procedures in order to comply with shelter-in-place directives, reducing claims costs even as insurers’ provider networks have been flooded with patients.

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