Commercial Claims Are Likely to Decline in 2020, Spike in 2021

A previous version of this article incorrectly stated Cori Uccello’s title. She is a senior health fellow with the American Academy of Actuaries. This version has been updated.

An analysis by actuarial firm Milliman Inc. projects that net spending by the health insurance industry during the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to fall through the rest of 2020, but that pent-up demand for health care services — and potentially deteriorated population health due to delayed care — will likely drive a sharp escalation in costs in 2021. Patients have been obliged to defer elective and non-emergency procedures in order to comply with shelter-in-place directives, reducing claims costs even as insurers’ provider networks have been flooded with patients.

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Peter Johnson

Peter Johnson

Peter has worked as a journalist since 2011 and has covered health care since 2020. At AIS Health, Peter covers trends in finance, business and policy that affect the health insurance and pharma sectors. For Health Plan Weekly, he covers all aspects of the U.S. health insurance sector, including employer-sponsored insurance, Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage and the Affordable Care Act individual marketplaces. In Radar on Drug Benefits, Peter covers the operations of (and conflicts between) pharmacy benefit managers and pharmaceutical manufacturers, with a particular focus on pricing dynamics and market access. Before joining AIS Health, Peter covered transportation, public safety and local government for various outlets in Seattle, his hometown and current place of residence. He graduated with a B.A. from Colby College.

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