COVID-19 Pandemic Could Shift Millions of People Into Individual Market

Under a scenario in which 25 million people lose their employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), enrollment in Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage or other private plans could increase by 6 million, according to a May analysis published by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute. States that have not expanded Medicaid will see more people become uninsured if they lose their ESI coverage. Another analysis by the A2 Strategy Group projected that individual market enrollment could more than double, reaching 26 million, if unemployment reaches 19% and no additional states expand Medicaid.

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