In a year when a pandemic and a presidential election are already fueling high levels of uncertainty, the Sept. 18 death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — which could tip the scales in favor of striking down the Affordable Care Act (ACA) — was hardly welcome news for health insurers. However, industry analysts and legal experts say there are plenty of reasons not to hit the panic button just yet.
“This definitely increases the chance of the Supreme Court striking down the full ACA. But we’re going from a pretty low likelihood base,” says Chris Sloan, an associate principal at consulting firm Avalere Health. “The odds are still really stacked against anything materially changing for the ACA.”