Half of People Slated to Lose Medicaid May Transition to Employer Plans

When Medicaid eligibility redeterminations start back up in April, about 9.6 million Medicaid enrollees could transition to employer-sponsored insurance, 2.6 million could move to Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage, and 3.8 million could become uninsured, according to a report released by AHIP. Based on an Urban Institute projection and data on historical coverage transitions from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, researchers at NORC at the University of Chicago estimated that in almost all states, the majority of Medicaid enrollees who become disenrolled will transition to ESI, ranging from 57.1% in Delaware to 48.9% in Georgia. Nationwide, over 20% of individuals losing Medicaid coverage during redetermination may become uninsured. Variation across states ranged from 26.2% in South Dakota to 17.7% in Massachusetts.

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