Murky Estimates of Enrollment, Costs Are Risky for Insurers

With unpredictable risk caused by the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic, estimating claims and enrollment will be more difficult than ever for health insurance companies in 2021, and the task has particularly high stakes for smaller payers.

Member enrollment has shifted a great deal during the pandemic-driven economic crisis, with many Americans losing their jobs and employer-backed health insurance. A substantial portion of those people have enrolled in Medicaid or Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges, but analysts and actuaries are still working to determine how many people landed in what part of the health insurance industry and how many people lost coverage altogether.

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