With COVID-19 cases and deaths surging in some U.S. states, it has become clear that the nation won’t be back to normal anytime soon. Still, the country’s largest health insurer is betting that health care utilization, and the costs associated with it, will return to something close to typical levels in the second half of the year.
At its lowest point in April, inpatient care volume — including care for COVID-19 patients — was about three quarters less than normal, UnitedHealth Group Chief Financial Officer John Rex pointed out during a July 15 conference call to discuss the company’s second-quarter earnings. At that same low point, utilization of outpatient and physician services fell to roughly 60% of normal levels. But in June, UnitedHealth saw inpatient volume recover to nearly 95% of baseline, and as June turned to July, outpatient and physician services were “tracking above 90%,” Rex said. “These national trends have continued thus far in July, even as certain states are seeing short-term deferral of services where there are elevated levels of infection and hospitalization.”