Retail Prescription Drug Spending Growth May Slow Down in Next Decade

Retail prescription drug spending is expected to grow moderately throughout the next decade. But per capita out-of-pocket retail drug costs may decrease starting in 2024 due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a recent Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker study predicted.

Using National Health Expenditures Accounts historical and projection data from 2021, researchers found that per capita spending on retail prescription drugs has skyrocketed over the past three decades— from $101 in 1960 to $1,147 in 2021. Meanwhile, out-of-pocket prescription drug spending has been declining since the mid-2000s and is anticipated to drop by 8% by 2031.

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Leslie Small

Leslie Small

Leslie has been working in journalism since 2009 and reporting on the health care industry since 2014. She has covered the many ups and downs of the Affordable Care Act exchanges, the failed health insurer mega-mergers, and hundreds of other storylines spanning subjects such as Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage, employer-sponsored insurance, and prescription drug coverage. As the managing editor of Health Plan Weekly and Radar on Drug Benefits, she writes and edits for both publications while overseeing a small team of reporters who also focus on the managed care sector. Before joining AIS Health, she was a senior editor for the e-newsletter Fierce Health Payer, and she started her career as a copy editor at multiple local newspapers. She graduated with a dual degree in journalism and political science from Penn State University.

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