Moody’s Report Shows Margins Declining, but Is the Sky Falling for MA?

While publicly traded insurers’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings reported thus far have highlighted concerning trends in Medicare Advantage, a new report from Moody’s Investors Services suggests that the MA market even prior to the current climate is showing “signs of weakening.” Nevertheless, with per-member earnings far greater than in other sectors, MA can still be profitable when properly managed and will stay competitive, suggests an analyst with the credit ratings firm.

Among the 10 insurers rated by Moody’s — which account for approximately two-thirds of all MA members — aggregate earnings stemming from MA decreased by 2% from $10.8 billion in 2019 to $10.6 billion in 2022, the most recent year available. During that same period, the aggregate MA earnings margin fell from 4.9% to 3.4% and earnings per member dropped by 28% ($732 to $526). While those earnings remain higher compared to other segments, earnings per member in the Medicaid and commercial segments increased, leading to an overall decline of 2.7% to $216 per member, according to the Jan. 23 Moody’s report.

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