Dual Eligibles

Since CMS posted its 2024 Advance Notice for Medicare Advantage and Part D plans a month ago, the MA industry has been in a frenzied state trying to understand the impact of proposed risk model changes on revenue while vocalizing its displeasure prior to the March 3 end date of the comment period. While CMS projected that MA plans may see an average 3.3% increase in risk scores, a new analysis from Pareto Intelligence based on client data suggests that the impact to risk scores could vary widely, increasing at best by 2% and dropping by up to 14% — for an average decline of 4%.

CMS, in its annual Advance Notice of updates to Medicare Part C and Part D payment policies for the coming plan year, included significant changes to the risk model that is used to adjust MA plan reimbursement. In addition to removing thousands of diagnosis codes and renumbering several Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) used to determine MA plans’ risk scores, the agency proposed moving from using ICD-9 codes to the “more commonly used” ICD-10. And in doing so, CMS explained that it removed certain diagnostic categories that are coded more frequently in MA relative to fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. Specifically, the proposed 2024 CMS-HCC model (version 28) would contain 115 diagnostic HCCs, up from the 86 used in the current model (version 24), but use just 7,770 ICD-10 codes, down from 9,797 ICDs under the current model.

Medicare Advantage enrollment over the last year grew by 7.4%, reflecting slower growth than previous years and falling slightly below CMS’s expectations. According to the latest update to AIS’s Directory of Health Plans (DHP), the MA program enrolled nearly 31 million beneficiaries as of February. That data reflects the full outcome of the 2023 Medicare Annual Election Period (AEP), which ran from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7. Despite the slowdown in enrollment, insurers’ increased investments in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) appear to be paying off, while MA plans say their attempts to maintain affordability while enriching benefits contributed to their AEP successes.

“We are basically at the very tail end of the Baby Boomers aging into Medicare as of 2023,” remarks Rebellis Group CEO Betsy Seals, referring to the generational group whose births peaked in 1958. “Looking at the overall numbers, I think that we have a lot yet to discover about this next generation and how they’re going to shop and switch and enroll. So that’s going to be interesting.”

New research conducted by Avalere on behalf of the Better Medicare Alliance (BMA) suggests Medicare Advantage plans aid in earlier detection of type 2 diabetes and that seniors diagnosed with type 2 diabetes generally fare better than similar patients in fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. Specifically, lower medical spending and rates of inpatient hospitalizations/emergency department visits observed by researchers may be particularly compelling for policymakers as they consider the overall value of the MA program.

With MA serving more seniors than ever before — having just reached a milestone of enrolling more than 30 million Medicare-eligible beneficiaries — and one-third of seniors estimated to have a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, it is important to look at how these patients’ care differs in MA vs. traditional Medicare, asserted Matt Kazan, managing director with Avalere, during a Jan. 12 webinar hosted by BMA. In many cases, there are “major differences,” he noted.

After a lackluster 2022 open enrollment season characterized by churn associated with its external marketing channels, Humana Inc. is touting above-industry growth after the 2023 Annual Election Period (AEP) that concluded last month. Presenting at the 41st Annual J.P. Morgan (JPM) Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, Humana Chief Financial Officer Susan Diamond said investments in the company’s products, sales channels and other aspects of its Medicare Advantage business are helping it “get back to an industry leading position” and achieve double-digit percentage enrollment gains this year.

According to the latest monthly enrollment data posted by CMS, MA now enrolls more than 30.6 million individuals, including more than 25 million in individual MA plans. That data reflects enrollment as of the Jan. 1, 2023, payment date (i.e., enrollment accepted through Dec. 2, 2022). Those figures do not reflect the full outcome of the AEP, which ran from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7, and are lower than CMS’s projection of 31.8 million for 2023, pointed out Citi’s Jason Cassorla in a Jan. 17 investor note. “[W]e expect enrollment to rise in the final 5 days of AEP and subsequently grow throughout 2023 considering both age-ins” and the Open Enrollment Period that runs from Jan. 1 through March 31, he wrote.

New research conducted by Avalere on behalf of the Better Medicare Alliance (BMA) suggests Medicare Advantage plans aid in earlier detection of type 2 diabetes and that seniors diagnosed with type 2 diabetes generally fare better than similar patients in fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. Specifically, lower medical spending and rates of inpatient hospitalizations/emergency department visits observed by researchers may be particularly compelling for policymakers as they consider the overall value of the MA program.

With MA serving more seniors than ever before — having just reached a milestone of enrolling more than 30 million Medicare-eligible beneficiaries — and one-third of seniors estimated to have a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, it is important to look at how these patients’ care differs in MA vs. traditional Medicare, asserted Matt Kazan, managing director with Avalere, during a Jan. 12 webinar hosted by BMA. In many cases, there are “major differences,” he noted.

SCAN Group, the parent company of not-for-profit Medicare Advantage insurer SCAN Health Plan, on Dec. 14 said it will combine with another not-for-profit organization, CareOregon. For more than 25 years, CareOregon has provided health services and community benefit programs to Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program in its home state and currently serves more than 500,000 Oregonians, including individuals who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid.

Under the name HealthRight Group, the combined companies will operate as a mission-driven not-for-profit health care organization and maintain their respective consumer-facing brands, according to a press release from the firms.

As Medicare Advantage organizations market a host of new products and benefits for the 2023 plan year, large and regional insurers alike are boosting their Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (D-SNP) presence. And while those plans continue be the most popular type of SNP — especially as CMS phases out so-called D-SNP look-alikes and pushes states to further integrate Medicare and Medicaid programs — a smaller but growing group remains interested in pursuing the more specialized Chronic Condition SNP (C-SNP) and Institutional SNP (I-SNP) markets.

According to an analysis of CMS’s Landscape Files from Clear View Solutions, LLC, there will be 1,320 SNPs on the market in 2023, compared with 1,192 in 2022 and 1,019 in 2021. Drilling down further, Clear View observes that there will be 1,068 SNPs available next year that were offered in 2022, compared with 926 plans that carried over from 2021 to 2022. The total number of D-SNPs, which serve members who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, will rise from 723 plans in 2022 to 809 plans available in 2023.

As the U.S. population ages and as payers and providers increasingly embrace home-based care — especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic — a program that one expert calls the “best-kept secret in health care” seems poised to finally have its moment in the sun. However, there are a variety of barriers that need to be tackled in order for Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly to significantly grow, and recent compliance issues at the largest PACE participant raise questions about the involvement of private equity-owned, for-profit companies.

The PACE model employs comprehensive medical care and social supports to help frail, elderly Americans remain at home when they otherwise would require a nursing home level of care. Eligible enrollees — who never have to pay cost sharing — receive health care services at an adult day center, which is staffed with interdisciplinary care teams and also offers classes, games and other wraparound services.

Individual Medicare Advantage enrollment this month surpassed 24.7 million lives, reflecting 9.3% membership growth since last August, according to a Barclays analysis of CMS’s latest monthly enrollment report. The publicly traded MCOs saw year-over-year individual MA membership grow by 10.5%, with Centene Corp. and CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna delivering double-digit enrollment gains, according to the analysis. Cigna Corp., however, underperformed with a year-over-year membership decline of 5.5%, observed Barclays. CMS’s August data release reflects enrollments accepted through July 8.

Highmark Wholecare has partnered with Posit Science to incorporate “brain fitness” into a program aimed at reducing vulnerable members’ risk of falling and improving balance. Highmark Wholecare, formerly Gateway Health, will offer BrainHQ exercises and services to approximately 7,000 qualifying members who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid and identified as a high risk for falls. BrainHQ’s evidence-based brain fitness program is available via web or mobile phone and is supported by more than 200 peer-reviewed studies, according to an Aug. 15 press release from the partners.

In a new enrollment transition memo issued to Medicare Advantage organizations with a significant number of dual eligible enrollees in products that are not Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans, CMS appears to be pushing so-called D-SNP look-alike plans to the brink of extinction. But the two-year transition process, which will wrap up for the 2023 plan year, still allows traditional MA plans to enrollee a limited number of duals. And one trade organization suggests more could be done to incentivize MAOs to set up D-SNPs.

CMS in 2019 first began cracking down on D-SNP look-alikes — MA plans that are marketed to duals but are not D-SNPs or integrated products — when it released draft revisions to the Medicare Communications and Marketing Guidelines that stated look-alikes cannot imply that the plan is for dual eligibles, cannot claim or infer that they have a relationship with the state, and cannot exclusively market to duals. A year prior, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) in its June report to Congress had argued that more needed to be done to promote the development of integrated plans and raised the issue of D-SNP look-alikes. At the time, approximately 2.7 million dual eligibles were enrolled in one of four types of managed care plans available to them, yet only 8% of full-benefit duals were in a plan with a high level of Medicare and Medicaid integration. More than 4.1 million individuals are now enrolled in a SNP, of which nearly 3.7 million are in a D-SNP.