Infographics

One Year Into ‘Unwinding,’ 20M People Have Lost Medicaid

More than 20 million people lost their Medicaid or Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage as of April 11, 2024, according to data released by states and CMS on the Medicaid eligibility redetermination process. Medicaid enrollment peaked at 94.5 million in April 2023, when states were permitted to resume disenrolling people from Medicaid who no longer qualify after a multiyear pause during the COVID-19 public health emergency.

States have reported Medicaid renewal outcomes for two-thirds of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees, as of April 2024, according to KFF’s Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker. Overall, about one-third of enrollees with a completed renewal lost their Medicaid coverage, and 69% of those coverage losses were due to procedural reasons — meaning individuals didn’t return their renewal form within a specific time frame or the state was unable to reach them. Disenrollment rates varied significantly across states, ranging from 57% in Utah to 12% in Maine.

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Current Market Access to GLP-1s

In March, the FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide) for cardiovascular risk reduction, which could further boost the already-strong sales for the GLP-1 weight-loss medication.

Specifically, Wegovy is now approved to reduce risk of “major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including cardiovascular death, non-fatal heart attack (myocardial infarction) or non-fatal stroke” in adults who are either overweight or obese and have established cardiovascular disease, per a Novo press release.

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How Does MA Plan Design Impact Enrollment, Equity?

Medicare Advantage plan design — particularly the cost of premiums — has a major influence on who chooses to enroll. The variance in that enrollment mix can have a big impact on outcomes and utilization, according to a new white paper from Inovalon and Harvard Medical School. Using Inovalon’s Medical Outcomes Research for Effectiveness and Economics Registry dataset, which tracks demographic and outcomes information for about 30% of the MA population at any given time, researchers found that socioeconomically disadvantaged populations were more attracted to MA, especially zero-premium products.

“Our research challenges the misconception that Medicare Advantage is a monolith, revealing significant differences in plan designs and features and how those variables affect enrollment and outcomes,” Boris Vabson, Ph.D., a health economist at Harvard Medical School and co-lead researcher on the project, said in an April 8 statement released alongside the research.

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‘LTSS-Like’ Supplemental Benefits Aim to Fill a Gap, but Enrollment Remains Low

Millions of seniors report needing long-term services and supports that can assist with daily activities and disease management, but many don’t qualify for Medicaid, the primary source of LTSS coverage. Medicare Advantage plans have stepped up to fill in the gap with “LTSS-like” supplemental benefits, which range from select Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill such as home modifications and service dog support, to Expanded Primarily Health-Related Benefits, including adult day services, in-home support services and caregiver support.

New research from ATI Advisory explores who has access to and ultimately enrolls in MA plans that offer LTSS-like supplemental benefits. The analysis of CMS data found that 82% of Medicare-only beneficiaries (i.e. those who are not dually eligible for Medicaid) have access to at least one plan that offers at least one LTSS-like benefit. Despite the wide availability of LTSS-like plans — particularly in high-population urban areas — just 9% of beneficiaries are enrolled in them, representing about 2 million people.

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MCO Stock Performance, March 2024

Here’s how major health insurers’ stock performed in March 2024. Elevance Health, Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major commercial insurers as of March 28, 2024, at $518.24. Humana Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major Medicare insurers at $346.72.

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Market Concentration Pushes up ACA Plan Premiums, Analysis Shows

High gross premiums in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces are related to limited choices of health plans and high levels of hospital concentration, a recent Urban Institute report shows.

The study analyzed insurer and premium participation data from more than 503 rating areas on HealthCare.gov and state-based marketplaces from 2019 to 2024. In 2024, the average national benchmark premium — the second-lowest-cost silver premium — is $473. State average benchmark premiums range from $335 in New Hampshire to $886 in Alaska. Average annual premium growth between 2019 and 2024 was modest, averaging 0.2% per year.

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As ACA Exchanges Turn 10, New HHS Reports Show How Far They’ve Come

Over the first 10 years of the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, enrollment nationwide has almost tripled, from 8 million individuals in 2014 to 21.4 million in 2024, according to an HHS report.

While the ACA initially envisioned the marketplaces to be developed by states, it also provided states with the option to participate in the federally facilitated marketplace, HealthCare.gov. In 2014, 14 states and the District of Columbia chose to operate their own state-based marketplaces (SBMs). In 2024, there are 19 SBMs.

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Part D Formularies Get More Restrictive, but MA-PDs Beat PDPs on Access

Medicare Part D formularies are becoming more restrictive over time, asserts new research published in the March issue of Health Affairs. Studying Medicare administrative data that included Part D claims and plan formulary characteristics, researchers from the University of Southern California and Blaylock Health Economics found that utilization management tactics such as prior authorization, step therapy and formulary exclusions became far more commonplace between 2011 and 2020. In 2011, an average of 31.9% of drugs were restricted in some form, vs. 44.4% in 2020.

Restrictions varied based on drug costs and the availability of generic alternatives to brand-name drugs. Nearly 70% of brand-name compounds with no generic alternatives were restricted in 2020, compared to 30% of drugs with generic availability. Additionally, the lower the cost of the drug, the less likely it was to be restricted. In 2020, only 16.7% of drugs with generic availability that cost less than $100 per prescription faced restrictions, vs. 83.7% of brand-name only drugs that cost more than $1,000.

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Part D GLP-1 Spend Soars as CMS Makes Key Coverage Decision

Medicare is spending billions on GLP-1s, the groundbreaking diabetes drugs that are now seeing skyrocketing demand for their ability to help patients lose weight. While Medicare Part D plans are prohibited from covering weight loss therapies, a new FDA decision for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide) could reshape the coverage landscape for some GLP-1s — and drive Part D spending even higher.

A March 22 analysis from KFF found that Part D spending on Novo’s Ozempic (semaglutide) alone reached $4.6 billion in 2022, a 77% increase from the prior year and a 207% increase from 2020. (Novo brands its injectable semaglutide as Ozempic for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes and as Wegovy for weight loss.) KFF found that Part D spending on GLP-1s has grown exponentially every year since 2018. Eli Lilly’s Trulicity (dulaglutide), an older GLP-1 that hit the market in 2014, saw the second-highest gross Part D spending among all therapies in 2022 at $6.2 billion. Ozempic, meanwhile, sat at No. 6. KFF speculated that both Ozempic and Novo’s oral semaglutide Rybelsus could be selected for Medicare drug price negotiation as early as 2025.

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A Closer Look at 2024 ACA Enrollment: Another Year of Record Signups

More than 21.4 million people have signed up or were automatically re-enrolled in Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage during the 2024 open enrollment period, a 31% increase compared to 2023 OEP, according to CMS.

About 16.4 million people enrolled through HealthCare.gov in the 32 states that use that platform, and another 5.1 million enrolled across 18 states and the District of Columbia, which use their own marketplaces. More than 5.2 million people signed up for marketplace coverage for the first time, a 41% increase compared to 3.7 million during the 2023 OEP.

Every state except Maine saw membership growth in 2024, ranging from 0.2% in the District of Columbia to 80.2% in West Virginia. From 2023 to 2024, 44 of the 51 states reported signup increases of at least 10%, and seven states saw surges of more than 50%. Compared to 2021, marketplace enrollment increased over 150% in six states: Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia.

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© 2024 MMIT