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A Cigna-Humana Merger Could Shake Up Medicare Advantage, Commercial Markets

A megamerger reportedly brewing between The Cigna Group and Humana Inc. could create a health insurance giant with 31 million members that’s capable of rivaling UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health Corp — if the deal could weather antitrust challenges.

Cigna’s health insurance products cover more than 17 million people nationwide, and almost 80% of its members are enrolled in administrative services only (ASO) employer-based health plans, according to the latest data from AIS’s Directory of Health Plans (DHP). Humana, meanwhile, enrolls over 13.7 million people, with nearly 42% in Medicare Advantage plans, including those serving people who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. It also has a large contract with TRICARE, the health insurance program serving military service members, retirees and their families.

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MCO Stock Performance, November 2023

Here’s how major health insurers’ stock performed in November 2023. UnitedHealth Group had the highest closing stock price among major commercial insurers as of November 30, 2023, at $552.97. Humana Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major Medicare insurers at $484.86.

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ACA Marketplaces See Robust Enrollment, So Far

Nearly 4.6 million people have enrolled in Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage since the start of the 2024 open enrollment period on Nov. 1, a 36% increase compared to the same point during the 2023 OEP, according to CMS. This year’s open enrollment season will last from Nov. 1, 2023, to Jan. 15, 2024, in most states and longer in some state-based marketplaces (SBMs).

More than 4 million people have enrolled through HealthCare.gov in the 32 states that use that platform, and another 501,962 have enrolled across 18 states and the District of Columbia, which use their own marketplaces. Most states are seeing significant membership growth in 2024 compared with the same period last year. Mississippi reported a signup surge of almost 114%.

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Top Payers Still Dominate as SNP Market Expands at Rapid Pace

From 2017 to 2023, the number of people enrolled in Special Needs Plans (SNPs) grew by more than 150% to about 6.3 million lives, according to the latest update to AIS’s Directory of Health Plans. Dual Eligible SNPs (D-SNPs) saw the most growth, a mammoth 170% increase to 5.6 million lives, followed by Institutional SNPS (I-SNPs) at 86% growth, then Chronic Condition SNPs (C-SNPs) at 58% growth.

Payers have grown to meet that surge, with the total number of SNP offerings expanding from 498 to 1,082 plans between 2017 and 2023, per an analysis of CMS’s Landscape files from Clear View Solutions, LLC. Clear View’s data shows that in a typical year, the number of new SNP offerings has exceeded the number of plans dropped.

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ACA Marketplaces See Robust Enrollment, So Far

Nearly 4.6 million people have enrolled in Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage since the start of the 2024 open enrollment period on Nov. 1, a 36% increase compared to the same point during the 2023 OEP, according to CMS. This year’s open enrollment season will last from Nov. 1, 2023, to Jan. 15, 2024, in most states and longer in some state-based marketplaces (SBMs).

More than 4 million people have enrolled through HealthCare.gov in the 32 states that use that platform, and another 501,962 have enrolled across 18 states and the District of Columbia, which use their own marketplaces. Most states are seeing significant membership growth in 2024 compared with the same period last year. Mississippi reported a signup surge of almost 114%.

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Nurse Practitioners, Urgent Care Take Center Stage as Patient Trends Shift

Fewer people with employment-based health plans visited primary care practices, while more have turned to telemedicine and urgent care clinics since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report published by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

Using claims data from 2013 to 2021, researchers found that primary care office visits at a family/general practice, internal medicine practice or with a medical doctor dropped during that time. The share of visits with a nurse practitioner, however, increased significantly, from 4% in 2013 to 16% in 2021.

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A Closer Look at the Medicare Part D Landscape

As of 2023, about 50.5 million Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in a plan with Part D prescription drug coverage, with 44% in stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs) and 56% in Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plans (MA-PDs), according to a KFF analysis.

The three largest Part D insurers by market share — UnitedHealth Group, CVS Health Corp. and Humana Inc. — account for 57% of enrollment in 2023. More than half of UnitedHealth’s and Humana’s Part D enrollees chose MA-PDs, while the majority of CVS Health, Centene Corp. and The Cigna Group Part D enrollees are in PDPs.

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Texas Messes With ACA Rating Areas — With Promising Results

Merging urban and rural Affordable Care Act marketplace rating areas in Texas significantly increased carrier and plan choices and lowered overall plan premiums in rural Texas, according to a recent Health Affairs study.

When calculating premiums for customers, the ACA permits insurers to consider those customers’ area of residence — or rating area — among other factors including age, smoking status and family size. Yet the use of rating areas can lead to higher premiums for rural areas, where residents tend to have greater health care needs and where there’s a smaller risk pool due to lower population density.

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ICER Report Calls for Greater Coverage Policy Transparency

Major payer coverage policies across select categories often met fair access criteria for cost sharing, clinical eligibility, step therapy and provider restrictions, according to the third annual “Barriers to Fair Access” assessment published by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

The analysis examined coverage policies for 18 drugs across 10 commercial formularies, eight Affordable Care Act exchange plans and the Veterans Health Administration national formulary, representing 42 million enrollees in total. ICER asked the payers for coverage policy information and leveraged the MMIT Analytics Market Access Database for additional information. (MMIT is the parent company of AIS Health, which maintains journalistic independence and did not play a role in producing the report.)

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With Mixed Results Across ACOs, Direct Contracting Model Serves Up Seven-Fold Increase in Savings

Despite the program receiving continued pushback from progressive lawmakers, data from the since-renamed Global and Professional Direct Contracting (GPDC) Model suggests that it is making significant strides, with participants driving gross savings exceeding $870 million in 2022, more than seven times the $117 million in gross savings reported for performance year 2021. At least five known Medicare Advantage sponsors have subsidiaries participating in the model, which allows Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) to share risk and receive capitated payments for serving fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries.

CMS, in a fact sheet highlighting the performance year 2022 data, observed that the total financial savings increased year over year because of “growth in model participation, a longer performance period in PY2022 (12 months vs. 9 months in PY2021), and performance improvements by model participants as they gained experience.” Last year, 99 Direct Contracting Entities participated in the model, up from 53 DCEs in 2021, with 21 million beneficiary months, compared with 3 million beneficiary months in 2021.

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