A California law designed to help people transition from the state’s Medi-Cal Medicaid program to Affordable Care Act exchange plans has been successful at keeping people insured since its launch last year, according to a recent report from the nonprofit California Health Care Foundation. JoAnn Volk, the study’s lead author, tells AIS Health the analysis is based on “early data,” so it is too soon to draw any long-term conclusions, although she noted that insurers have praised the rollout.

Starting in July 2023, people in California who lost Medi-Cal coverage could opt to be automatically enrolled in Covered California, the state’s marketplace. Those people were enrolled in a zero-premium or subsidized marketplace plan as the default option, although they also had the chance to opt out of coverage or select a different plan.

After major insurers reported second-quarter financial results that reflected continued medical cost pressure in the government business, analysts revisited their takes on expectations for CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna, Centene Corp. and industry peers. Two notable factors driving some of the headwinds in the back half of the year are the 2025 Medicare Annual Election Period (AEP), which kicks off on Oct. 15, and the impact of Medicaid redeterminations. The latter was of particular concern to analysts after Sept. 4, when Centene provided an update at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference signaling lower-than-expected Medicaid enrollment.

For managed care organizations with a large Medicaid footprint, the consistent takeaway for Barclays after second-quarter earnings reports was “incremental trend pressure relative to current expectations,” stemming from redeterminations picking up in the first half of the year “that put increased acuity pressure on state rates,” wrote equity research analysts on Aug. 22. “From here, membership should start to stabilize, which is the first step toward recovery.”

With both the Republican and Democratic conventions now finished and a little over two months until the U.S. presidential election, speculation over how nominees Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would influence health policy is beginning to heat up. To that end, Harris’ recent release of her economic policy outline has offered more clues about her highest priorities — while one former Trump administration official says he expects Republicans to largely avoid health care issues during the campaign.

“Just to be very clear, I think on the Republican side, you’re still not going to see much emphasis on health care,” Alex Azar, who was secretary of HHS under Trump, said during an Aug. 14 webinar hosted by Avalere Health. “President Trump is known to not just read from a teleprompter, so who knows,” he added, but it’s more likely that issues like inflation and immigration will be in the spotlight.

With tens of millions of enrollees now dropped from the Medicaid rolls, a group of 189 health care organizations have taken another step they hope will add permanency to the program. The coalition, organized by the Association for Community Affiliated Plans (ACAP) and Families USA, sent a letter on Aug. 13 to congressional leaders calling for 12-month continuous enrollment for adults enrolled in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

They asked for support of the Stabilize Medicaid and CHIP Coverage Act, which was introduced in the House by Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) in September 2023 and in the Senate by Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) the next month.

So far, 2024 has proven to be an eventful year for publicly traded health insurers — and not always in a good way.

Indeed, during the most recent quarter CVS Health Corp. made waves by adjusting its earnings outlook downward for the third time this year and dismissing the short-tenured president of its Aetna health benefits division due to ongoing Medicare cost pressures.

Other publicly traded firms, including Humana Inc. and Elevance Health, Inc., offered better second-quarter performances, but still saw their share prices fall amid investors’ concerns about how medical costs will shake out in the second half.

After an administrative law judge (ALJ) agreed with protesters that the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) used an “arbitrary and flawed procurement process” that involved the use of undisclosed scoring criteria when awarding new contracts for the Arizona Long Term Care System (ALTCS), the implementation of the new pacts is on hold. AHCCCS on Aug. 13 said it is “pausing member transition activities” related to the new contracts that were scheduled to begin Oct. 1 and initially awarded to subsidiaries of Centene Corp. and UnitedHealthcare (UHC).

AHCCCS has 30 days to accept, modify or reject the ALJ’s decision, which was issued Aug. 9. The agency said it is “currently in the process of reviewing” the decision.

As evidenced by hotly contested Medicaid contract awards in Florida, Kansas and Texas this year, local and regional health plans are increasingly being shut out of opportunities to serve enrollees in their communities. And though a recent administrative law judge decision in Arizona suggests the winds could be changing, community plans need to become more strategic about their approach to procurements, says one industry expert.

Beyond the headlines, “so much more has happened in the Medicaid space than the eligibility redetermination process,” says Clay Farris, founder and practice lead of client solutions at Mostly Medicaid, which offers advisory services to community plans and other stakeholders across the Medicaid continuum. He is referring to the so-called unwinding of policies that were in place during the COVID-19 public health emergency, when a yearslong pause on routine eligibility checks led Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment to hit an unprecedented 94 million in March 2023. As of Aug. 1, at least 24.8 million people had been disenrolled from Medicaid because of redeterminations, KFF reports.

When CVS Health Corp. announced on Aug. 7 that Aetna President Brian Kane was leaving after less than a year on the job, it highlighted how severe the company’s struggles in its health benefits segment have become. The decision also drew mixed reactions from Wall Street analysts.

Barclays’ Andrew Mok wrote in an Aug. 7 note that Kane’s departure was “a big surprise” and added that Kane “was widely viewed as the fixer for the Medicare Advantage business,” which has been a drag on earnings.

“The accountability here is questionable and the change casts significant uncertainty on whether the company was able to capture developing cost trend pressure in 2025 Medicare bids,” Mok wrote.

With Vice President Kamala Harris poised to get the Democratic nomination for president, Wall Street analysts have been busy prognosticating what that means for the array of for-profit health care firms they cover — including Medicare and Medicaid insurers.

So far, select analysts are predicting that Harris’ ascendance will give Democrats a greater chance of winning the election, which would be bad news for Medicare Advantage-focused insurers but good for those more focused on Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act exchanges.

During recent conference calls to discuss second-quarter 2024 earnings, Centene Corp., Elevance Health, Inc. and Molina Healthcare Inc. all discussed the long-term Medicaid growth opportunity despite declining membership resulting from redeterminations and increasing medical costs — scenarios that they expect to stabilize next year. And while Centene may be scaling back its Medicare Advantage footprint and Elevance pursued a “disciplined approach” to 2025 bids, all three emphasized their continued focus on serving dual eligible Medicare-Medicaid beneficiaries.

For the quarter ending June 30, Centene on July 26 posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.42 and said it is on track to deliver adjusted EPS of at least $6.80 for the full year. The company ended the quarter with more than 13.1 million Medicaid members, down from just over 16 million a year ago. However, its total membership increased slightly to nearly 28.5 million members, with growth in the Affordable Care Act exchanges and Medicare Prescription Drug Plan (PDP) businesses offsetting Medicaid losses. Its overall medical loss ratio for the quarter was a higher-than-expected 87.6%, as cost pressures in Medicaid led to a segment MLR of 92.8% (compared with 88.9% in the prior year quarter).