Republican leaders in North Carolina, one of a dozen states that have yet to broaden access to Medicaid programs, say that they are now ready to embrace expansion, which may be a boon to its managed care organizations.

By widening Medicaid eligibility to limits allowed under the Affordable Care Act, North Carolina would enroll an additional 600,000 individuals, a sharp increase over the 2.7 million currently covered under Medicaid in the state, according to a summary of a draft bill first reported on by Axios.

In a May 25 press conference, state Senate leader Phil Berger called Medicaid expansion “the right thing for us to do,” citing the need for coverage for low-income individuals and families and the federal government’s responsibility to pick up 90% of costs for enrollees newly eligible under the expanded coverage guidelines, according to reports.

When the Biden administration ends the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE), states will disenroll millions of Medicaid beneficiaries — and insurers will have to take Medicaid MCO members off their books. Experts tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT, that carriers can take steps to retain some of those members by helping them enroll in Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace coverage — but say the number of people who make the switch will be far lower than the number of people who joined the Medicaid rolls during the pandemic (see infographic).

Medicaid and individual exchange enrollment have both boomed with the higher federal funding that was included in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) — and both segments’ total enrollment and enrollee profiles will change significantly when that extra funding ends.

Since taking office, the Biden administration has taken a hard line on Section 1115 Medicaid waivers, rescinding multiple demonstrations that were approved by the Trump administration and subsequently becoming ensnared in legal fights with Republican-leaning states. Such disputes may wind up being detrimental to Medicaid managed care organizations, which in some cases spent considerable resources on implementing waiver demonstration programs that may never come to fruition.

The latest legal conflict is in Georgia, where the state is trying to preserve an 1115 waiver that the Trump administration approved. Georgia’s waiver would have imposed premiums and work requirements on Medicaid beneficiaries, with the added twist of expanding Medicaid eligibility just for the population earning up to 100% of the federal poverty level — rather than 138% like with regular Medicaid expansion — and therefore receiving a smaller federal funding match.