Membership Growth

Although executives during The Cigna Group’s first-quarter 2023 earnings call put a heavy emphasis on the firm’s evolving PBM business model, Cigna’s ability to control health care costs was a noteworthy —albeit less headline-grabbing — highlight that caught one equities analyst’s eye.

Cigna delivered “the best MLR beat of the bunch,” Jefferies analyst David Windley wrote in a May 8 research note, pointing out that the insurer’s medical loss ratio of 81.3% beat the Wall Street consensus estimate by 60 basis points. For the full year 2023, Cigna expects its MLR to be in the range of 81.5% to 82.3%.

As the industry prepares for a comprehensive overhaul of the model used to determine Medicare Advantage insurers’ risk-adjusted pay, the three largest MA organizations signaled during recent earnings calls that they are well positioned for the changes.

Reporting first-quarter 2023 financial results on May 3, CVS Health Corp. beat Wall Street expectations of $2.09 per share with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20, largely driven by better-than-expected membership in the health care benefits segment despite a year-over-year increase in medical loss ratio. Total revenues increased 11% from the first quarter of 2022 to reach $85.2 billion, fueled by growth across all segments, while the health care benefits segment (Aetna) generated revenues of $25.9 billion, up from $23.1 billion a year ago. Medical membership grew sequentially by 1.1 million members to a total of 25.5 million lives as of March 31, reflecting increases across all product lines including growth of 900,000 enrollees in the Affordable Care Act exchange business.

A Senate Finance Committee “secret shopper” investigation of Medicare Advantage plan provider directories turned up inaccurate, nonworking phone numbers or unreturned calls in 33% of 120 provider listings. Staff reviewed directories of 12 different plans in a total of six states and called 10 systematically selected providers from each plan for a total of 120 calls, according to the May 3 report. Furthermore, more than 80% of the supposedly in-network mental health providers that were contacted by reviewers were unreachable, not accepting new patients or out of network. In remarks given at a May 3 hearing to discuss the issue, Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) called these so-called ghost networks a “breach of contract” by health insurers and vowed to “use all resources” at his disposal to “get some real accountability.” When insurers host such ghost networks, “they are selling health coverage under false pretenses, because the mental health providers advertised in their plan directories aren’t picking up the phone or taking new patients,” he stated. “In any other business, if a product or service doesn’t meet expectations, consumers can ask for a refund.” He also pointed out that CMS performs regular audits of MA plans to ensure that they meet minimum standards but does not routinely audit MA provider directories. "[T]he results speak for themselves. It’s time for that to change," he added.

Although UnitedHealth Group’s executives touted “strong and well-balanced” growth in the first quarter of 2023, the company’s stock dropped following its April 14 earnings report. Equities analysts suggested that a decline in the days claims payable (DCP) metric led to the sell-off, as well as concerns about Medicare Advantage-related business risks — but their views differ about how concerned investors should be.

SVB Securities analyst Whit Mayo, for example, suggested in an April 17 research note that the risks to UnitedHealth’s valuation are overblown.

The company’s first-quarter results “brought forth continued themes of consistency, strong MA and self-funded growth, along with noticeable top-line strength within Optum Health,” Mayo wrote. “Noise around trend, lower DCP, 2024 MA risk balanced against the recent run-up, and a historically high relative valuation premium presumably pushed shares lower on Friday,” he suggested, but added that “1Q results generally and historically present few new details to reshape investors’ views on the full-year earnings curve for the sector.”

UnitedHealth Group on April 14 said revenue for the first quarter of 2023 rose 15% from the prior year to $92 billion, reflecting double-digit growth at both Optum and UnitedHealthcare. The insurance segment, which served about 1.2 million more people in the first three months of the year with broad-based growth across its commercial, Medicare and Medicaid lines of business, saw revenues climb 13% to $70.5 billion, according to the company’s earnings press release. And the insurer said it expects to “exceed the upper end” of its Medicare Advantage membership growth expectations for the year. The company stated in November that it anticipated adding between 800,000 and 900,000 new MA members in 2023. As of March 31, the company served more than 7.54 million MA enrollees, compared with 6.89 million a year ago. UnitedHealth recorded first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $6.26, an increase of 14% from first quarter 2022, and raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to between $24.50 and $25.00. During an April 14 conference call to discuss first quarter earnings, CEO Andrew Witty commended CMS for deciding to phase in changes to the MA risk adjustment system. “The phase-in will allow for more time to minimize impacts on beneficiaries as we lean on the multiple levers available to us, including our ability to manage costs and our relentless focus on member and patient needs,” he stated, according to a transcript of the call from The Motley Fool.

Since its inception as a technology-based “disruptor” in the Medicare Advantage space, Clover Health Investments Corp. has struggled to turn a profit. But after showing signs of momentum at the end of 2022, Clover leadership has declared 2023 as a year focused on profitability rather than growth. To speed that path, the insurtech this week unveiled two “business transformation initiatives”: (1) an agreement to transfer its core plan operations to UST HealthProof’s integrated technology platform, and (2) additional corporate restructuring actions that included a recent 10% workforce reduction.

While “benchmark” Affordable Care Act premiums rose in 2023 after declining for multiple years, greater insurer competition in heavily populated regions is still helping to keep rates in check, according to a new analysis from the Urban Institute. Yet some rural areas and smaller cities often don’t attract enough insurers to create meaningful competition — a market dynamic that remains challenging to overcome, one of the report’s authors says.

To produce the analysis, researchers examined premium and insurer participation data from HealthCare.gov for 33 states and from 18 state-based marketplace websites. They zeroed in on “benchmark” premiums — or the rates for the second-lowest-cost silver plans available — because those determine the level of premium tax credits consumers receive.

Managed care plans, particularly Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs), are showing promise in improving health outcomes and reducing health care utilization among Medicare-eligible individuals who qualify as partial Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibles, according to a March 2023 study published by Elevance Health’s Public Policy Institute. Elevance’s analysis of 2020 CMS data found that 5% of the 65.9 million Medicaid eligibles that year were partial duals — those who are eligible for Medicare but are not yet enrolled in or do not qualify for the full range of Medicaid benefits in their state. 

Meanwhile, the D-SNP population has grown considerably in recent years, from just over 2 million members in 2017 to 5.1 million members in 2023, according to AIS’s Directory of Health Plans (DHP). (Elevance, for its part, is the third-largest D-SNP insurer nationally, serving just over 600,000 members as of DHP’s March 2023 update). A handful of states also participate in CMS’s Financial Alignment Initiative for duals, enrolling their qualifying duals in Medicare-Medicaid plans (MMPs). And the vast majority of people enrolled in the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) are dual eligibles.  

Nearly 16.4 million people selected or were automatically reenrolled in coverage during the 2023 open enrollment period for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, the Biden administration said on March 23. That represents a 13% increase compared to the 2022 open enrollment period and a 36% increase over enrollments during the signup window for 2021 coverage. Enrollment has also doubled compared to when the exchanges debuted in 2014, when there were about 8 million signups, CMS said. The administration revealed the final signup numbers on the 13th anniversary of the ACA, using the opportunity to tout the law’s positive effect on insurance coverage through both the exchanges and Medicaid expansion.

When Medicaid eligibility redeterminations start back up in April, about 9.6 million Medicaid enrollees could transition to employer-sponsored insurance, 2.6 million could move to Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage, and 3.8 million could become uninsured, according to a report released by AHIP. Based on an Urban Institute projection and data on historical coverage transitions from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, researchers at NORC at the University of Chicago estimated that in almost all states, the majority of Medicaid enrollees who become disenrolled will transition to ESI, ranging from 57.1% in Delaware to 48.9% in Georgia. Nationwide, over 20% of individuals losing Medicaid coverage during redetermination may become uninsured. Variation across states ranged from 26.2% in South Dakota to 17.7% in Massachusetts.