Stock Performance

Elevance Health, Inc. reported stronger results for its 2023 fourth quarter earnings than its other publicly traded managed care peers so far, driven by relatively low utilization across its diverse mix of business lines. The results received positive reviews from Wall Street analysts, who contrasted the strong results with other carriers’ struggles.

Elevance, the for-profit Blue Cross and Blue Shield affiliate formerly known as Anthem, experienced lower care utilization than other managed care heavyweights like UnitedHealth Group and Humana Inc. — something that analysts were quick to note in their coverage of Elevance’s results. Elevance has substantive business in commercial insurance, Medicare and Medicaid.

If the market reactions to a Humana Inc. regulatory filing and to UnitedHealth Group’s latest earnings report are any indication, concerns about elevated care utilization that cropped up in the second half of 2023 have followed health insurers into the new year.

While Humana had already expected that heightened medical care use among its senior enrollees would continue through the rest of 2023, “actual fourth quarter results reflect an additional increase in Medicare Advantage medical cost trends,” the company said in a Jan. 18 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Three startup “insurtechs” — Oscar Health Inc., Clover Health Investments Corp. and Alignment Healthcare Inc. — presented at the J.P. Morgan Health Care Conference in San Francisco last week, where they reiterated earlier projections that they expect to close 2024 in the black. Oscar and Clover expect to turn a profit in 2024, while Alignment says it will break even.

Oscar reiterated its promise to be profitable in 2024, and it teased entry into the Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangement (ICHRA) market. ICHRAs, which allow participating employers to reimburse employees for Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage at a fixed rate in lieu of purchasing a traditional group health plan, have also been identified as a target market by Centene Corp. in recent weeks.

Here’s how major health insurers’ stock performed in December 2023. UnitedHealth Group had the highest closing stock price among major commercial insurers as of December 29, 2023, at $526.47. Humana Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major Medicare insurers at $457.81.

During their Dec. 12 investor day, Centene Corp. executives promised 12% to 15% in annual earnings growth and declared victory in their multiyear value creation and cost-cutting plan. Wall Street analysts responded warmly to the firm’s presentation, which featured a bold plan to grow Affordable Care Act marketplace enrollment by courting small businesses.

That plan would leverage Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRAs) to exploit what CEO Sarah London called a “long-term disruption opportunity” in the small-business health insurance market. Centene is the first major carrier to promise long-term, substantive growth in ICHRAs. The long-term growth prospects of ICHRAs, which allow employers and employees to buy marketplace plans, are far from clear.

Here’s how major health insurers’ stock performed in November 2023. UnitedHealth Group had the highest closing stock price among major commercial insurers as of November 30, 2023, at $552.97. Humana Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major Medicare insurers at $484.86.

The Cigna Group is reportedly discussing a multibillion-dollar deal with Humana Inc. that would create a diversified health insurance giant capable of going toe-to-toe with UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health Corp.

Industry observers agree that such a transaction would receive robust regulatory scrutiny — with many predicting a high likelihood that federal officials will lob a legal challenge. However, opinions vary about how much the companies’ respective PBM businesses present a major antitrust risk.

News of the potential deal came from a Nov. 29 Wall Street Journal article, which cited people familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity. Assuming the talks don’t fall apart, the terms of the deal could be finalized by the end of the year, the article stated.

Three quarters into 2023, Moody’s Investors Service says the predictions it made at the start of the year for the health insurance sector — namely, earnings growth in the mid-to-high single digits — have largely proven accurate. However, while financial results were consistent with the credit rating firm’s expectations, analysts said in a new report that the reasons for those results were not exactly what they predicted.

“Our outlook was premised on reduced membership as a result of Medicaid redeterminations and the impact of a possible recession on commercial membership,” the analysts wrote in a report released on Nov. 20. “However, with no recession this year, commercial membership has been better than expected, but its growth has been offset by higher-than-expected MA [Medicare Advantage] utilization.” Additionally, “although Medicaid redeterminations are underway, their impact so far has been relatively small.”

Here’s how major health insurers’ stock performed in October 2023. UnitedHealth Group had the highest closing stock price among major commercial insurers as of October 31, 2023, at $535.56. Humana Inc. had the highest closing stock price among major Medicare insurers at $523.69.

The beleaguered startup insurers known as “insurtechs” continued to post losses during the third quarter, but executives from Oscar Health, Inc., Clover Health Investments Corp. and Alignment Healthcare, Inc. all said they expected to at least break even in 2024.

However, Bright Health Group and Friday Health Plans, two insurtechs that have ended their insurance operations, together owe billions in unpaid risk adjustment payments to other insurers that participate in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. CMS on Oct. 27 released details of payment plans for both firms.