For our annual series of outlook stories on the year ahead in Medicare Advantage, AIS Health, a division of MMIT, asked multiple experts what they view as MA organizations’ “keys to success” in 2024 and what critical investments will help them unlock their goals. Responses ranged from using artificial intelligence and other digital tools to improve the member experience to strategically striking value-based agreements with providers.

“If health plans don’t do a good job of educating or empowering the members with information, then the member effort increases, which frequently leads to member churn,” observes Srikanth Lakshminarayanan, senior vice president of the Center of Excellence for Healthcare Engagement Services at Sagility, a tech-enabled business process firm that supports payers and providers. “With MA membership increasing literally day by day, it’s important for health plans to make a conscious effort at doing a good job on member onboarding and retention. People who come out of their commercial plan into a Medicare plan need handholding of a different kind. They often need to know how Medicare works, what’s the supplemental spend, etc.”

As the first round of fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial results were reported by publicly traded insurers in January, modest enrollment growth during the recently concluded Annual Election Period (AEP) and continued utilization pressures were prominent Medicare Advantage themes during earnings calls. Although analysts were particularly concerned with results posted by Humana Inc., which notably moved up its earnings release date, some maintained that the MA-focused insurer remains poised for long-term growth in the sector.

Humana Inc. on Jan. 25 introduced 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of “approximately $16” — compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29.14. But that was after a regulatory filing indicated that inpatient utilization was higher than expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily during November and December, “as well as a further increase in non-inpatient trends, predominantly in the categories of physician, outpatient surgeries, and supplemental benefits, which emerged with the November and December paid claims data.” Humana’s stock plummeted after the disclosure, and the impact reverberated throughout the managed care sector, denting the share values of competitors including CVS Health Corp. and Elevance Health, Inc.

Insurers are more carefully tailoring their preventive supplemental benefit offerings to support Medicare Advantage enrollees aging in place, with benefits such as home and bathroom safety modifications more than doubling between 2023 and 2024, according to a new Faegre Drinker analysis of Plan Benefit Package (PBP) data. But as CMS takes steps to gather more data on supplemental benefits, less impactful benefits could be thinned from the pack while those with greater potential to improve health outcomes are embraced by insurers.

Faegre Drinker has been tracking the growth of expanded supplemental benefits since 2020, when MA insurers were in the early days of experimenting with new offerings under CMS’s reinterpretation of “primarily health related” supplemental benefits and first began offering Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill (SSBCI). The consulting firm's latest analysis, published on Dec. 5 and shared in advance with AIS Health, focuses on the preventive supplemental benefit market due to the large variance in uptake, with some benefits offered by fewer than 100 plans and others featured in more than 5,000 PBPs. This year, Faegre Drinker split the categories into two types: popular (i.e., offered by more than 1,000 plans) and less popular (i.e., those offered by fewer than 1,000 plans).

Plans participating in the Medicare Advantage Value-Based Insurance Design (VBID) Model next year must begin reporting beneficiary-level utilization data on three key supplemental benefit categories: food, transportation, and general supports for living (e.g., utilities assistance). That requirement was included in a 2024 request for applications released late last year, and CMS officials have since hinted that the agency is interested in gathering additional information about supplemental benefit usage from the MA industry at large. But in a move that flew largely under the radar, the agency in September issued a proposal to begin requiring all MA organizations to submit information about supplemental benefits at a greater level of detail than some plans may be able to provide at this time, industry experts tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT.

Supplemental benefits have been on the rise since plan year 2019, when CMS’s reinterpreted definition of “primary health-related” enabled MAOs to include benefits like adult day health services, support for caregivers of enrollees and therapeutic massage in their plan benefit packages (PBPs). And with the passage of the CHRONIC Care Act of 2018, MA plans in 2020 began offering Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill (SSBCI), a category of “non-primarily health related” items and services that can be made available to certain beneficiaries.

Plans participating in the Medicare Advantage Value-Based Insurance Design (VBID) Model next year must begin reporting beneficiary-level utilization data on three key supplemental benefit categories: food, transportation, and general supports for living (e.g., utilities assistance). That requirement was included in a 2024 request for applications released late last year, and CMS officials have since hinted that the agency is interested in gathering additional information about supplemental benefit usage from the MA industry at large. But in a move that flew largely under the radar, the agency in September issued a proposal to begin requiring all MA organizations to submit information about supplemental benefits at a greater level of detail than some plans may be able to provide at this time, industry experts tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT.

“Barbara is a Medicare Advantage member without a car and limited access to other transportation options. She has a health benefit card, issued on Optum’s payments platform, which she can use to pay for eligible over-the-counter items, groceries, and rides,” explains a recent blog post from Uber Health. Announced earlier this month, the new pact with UnitedHealth Group’s Optum health services division is just one example of creative partnerships emerging in Medicare Advantage to attract new members and address health-related social needs. Meanwhile, MA organizations for 2024 continue to strike new alliances with providers, retailers and other insurers to leverage their brands in select markets.

Centene Corp.’s Wellcare, for one, formed a new strategic alliance with Mutual of Omaha. For the 2024 plan year, the insurers will offer two cobranded PPOs — WellCare Mutual of Omaha No Premium and Wellcare Mutual of Omaha Low Premium — in five states: Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Washington and select areas of Texas. (Wellcare is also expanding its geographic footprint by 21 counties and adding a new state with entry into Delaware, according to an Oct. 11 press release unveiling its 2024 offerings.)

Only 42% of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) contracts that will be offered in 2024 achieved an overall rating of 4 stars or higher, compared with approximately 51% of contracts in 2023, according to the latest Medicare Part C and Part D Star Ratings data. Weighted by enrollment, the average MA-PD Star Rating fell from 4.14 for 2023 to 4.04, with approximately 74% of MA-PD enrollees estimated to be enrolled in contracts that achieved 4 or more stars for 2024, compared with 72% for 2023, CMS reported on Oct. 13.

Those changes were largely expected due to the application of the new Tukey outlier deletion methodology, which was used in determining the cut points for measures not directly related to member experience and largely achieved CMS’s stated goal of infusing more “predictability and stability” into the Star Ratings.

New data from Deft Research suggests that Medicare Advantage plans continue to struggle with retaining their dual eligible members, mainly because of problems associated with the supplemental benefits offered to address social needs. Published on June 29, Deft’s 2023 Dual Eligible Retention Study found that duals switch plans at about twice the rate of other MA beneficiaries. And while Deft says duals “absolutely depend” on supplemental benefits such as dental care, grocery allowances and utility assistance, duals’ reported issues with their current health coverage often stem from these enhanced offerings, whether they be a source of confusion or just prove difficult to use.

An estimated 30% of dual eligibles make a coverage change over the course of a year, and 8% of duals have already made a switch this year as of mid-May, according to Deft. (Dual eligibles can enroll in or switch dual plans once per quarterly Special Enrollment Period or during the Medicare Annual Election Period). By contrast, Deft in its 2023 Medicare Shopping and Switching Study, which is based on the responses of about 5,000 Medicare beneficiaries, observed that switching by “full pay” (i.e., those receiving no extra help) MA beneficiaries shot up to 15% this past AEP, compared with 12% in the prior two periods.

Favorable selection associated with beneficiaries choosing Medicare Advantage — which now enrolls more than half of Medicare beneficiaries — in combination with more intense diagnostic coding by plans is leading to increased MA payments that may not accurately reflect the costs of providing care to those beneficiaries, asserts the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) in its latest report to Congress. And the independent advisory body has some new takes on potential payment policies that aim to lessen the impact of favorable section by moving away from predictive-cost benchmarking that is based solely on fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare spending.

From CMS’s expanded definition of primarily health-related supplemental benefits to the introduction of Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill (SSBCI), Medicare Advantage plans have gained increasing flexibility over the last few years to offer supplemental benefits that can address social needs. Through the ongoing MA Value-Based Insurance Design (VBID) model — the only MA-focused demonstration being tested by the CMS Innovation Center — MA organizations have even more flexibility to target and tailor a variety of interventions. During a recent virtual panel of the Fourth National Medicare Advantage Summit, several longtime participants of the model agreed that such flexibility is critical to meeting beneficiaries’ evolving health-related and other social needs.

CMS first tested the model on a limited basis in 2017, allowing sponsors to offer reduced cost sharing for medications and offer high-value services to beneficiaries with select chronic conditions. Today, the model allows MAOs to tailor their MA plan offerings using several approaches and has 52 MAOs offering services to an estimated 6 million enrollees.