While Anthem, Inc. has seen less of an enrollment dip in its commercial business than it originally feared when the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recession first took hold, the insurer’s executives said during a July 29 earnings conference call that they expect that attrition to accelerate in the coming months as some furloughs become permanent job losses, AIS Health reported.

From March 31 to June 30, Anthem saw enrollment in its commercial and specialty business lines drop by 290,000. “But as you think about unemployment, that was fairly muted,” especially when it comes to Anthem’s risk-based business, President and CEO Gail Boudreaux said during the earnings call. She and other Anthem executives attributed that effect to the fact that many companies have thus far furloughed rather than laid off workers, thanks in part to federal stimulus funding.

“We can’t predict exactly what’s going to happen when they come off [furlough]; it will depend on the strengthening of the economy and what happens there and what employers decide to do,” Boudreaux said.

Ultimately, “we do expect further declines, assuming the economy continues to operate at less than full capacity,” Boudreaux said of Anthem’s commercial business. Meanwhile, Anthem’s Medicaid and Medicare enrollment grew by 599,000 from the first quarter of 2020 to the second quarter. Overall medical enrollment rose by 0.7% between the first and second quarters of this year, and it increased 3.9% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the prior-year quarter.

Anthem reported adjusted earnings per share of $8.91 per share in the quarter, compared with $4.36 during the prior-year period. The insurer’s quarterly operating revenue was $29.2 billion — an increase of $4 billion, or 15.9% compared with the prior-year quarter — which Anthem attributed to “pharmacy product revenue related to the launch of IngenioRx,” the company’s PBM.