When HHS unveiled a proposed rule in late January aimed at eliminating drug rebates in Medicare Part D and Medicaid managed care, the proposal was met with mixed responses. A recently released score from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calls into question whether the administration chooses to move forward with the proposal in its current form, AIS Health reported.

The proposal would do away with the safe harbor protection in the anti-kickback statute for rebates negotiated between manufacturers and PBMs starting Jan. 1, 2020.

In the CBO’s report, the agency projects that if the rule is implemented as proposed, it will increase federal spending by approximately $177 billion from 2020 to 2029. Of that total, spending on Medicare Part D premiums would increase by about $170 billion. Without rebates to keep premiums low, beneficiaries would face higher premiums. The agency anticipates that “rather than lowering list prices, manufacturers would offer the negotiated discounts in the form of chargebacks,” which are shared with beneficiaries via a manufacturer payment to a pharmacy.

The report, however, also concludes that “no current system could both meet the proposed rule’s standards and facilitate chargebacks.”

If “rebates could no longer be paid to PBMs in Medicare Part D,” but “systems are not available to support retail pharmacy chargebacks,…this would be an untenable situation,” says Elan Rubinstein, Pharm.D., principal at EB Rubinstein Associates, making it “reasonable to delay” the proposed implementation date.

“The increase in premiums was expected by many, but the growth in federal spending was somewhat surprising given that lower upfront prices would generally benefit the end payer, which in this case is the federal government,” says Jeremy Schafer, Pharm.D., senior vie president, director, access experience team at Precision for Value. “It seems changing the safe harbor may not accomplish patient savings or reduced government spending as hoped for by the administration.”