Patients’ treatment journeys often are complex as they move through lines of therapies and switch treatments. This can make it a challenge for pharmaceutical companies to accurately predict how their products, as well as those of their competitors, will do on the market. However, certain steps can be taken to improve this essential task.
“Forecasting drugs is challenging,” stated David Wolter, M.B.A., vice president of consulting services at IQVIA, during a recent webinar. While there aren’t many studies on forecasting accuracy within the pharma industry, he referenced one from 2013 that found “the majority of consensus analyst forecasts — so bank analysts for new drugs — are off by more than 40%.” He maintained that part of the reason this is so difficult is tied to “getting the patient part of the forecast correct.…How many patients are being treated, when they’re being treated and when we get the revenue and the volume associated with those patients.”