Medical Costs

As Medicare Advantage organizations grapple with rising medical costs — driven in part by increased spending on supplemental benefits such as dental, vision and over-the-counter coverage — CMS is tasking plans with the immediate submission of utilization data for “all items and services, including supplemental benefits” through the MA Encounter Data System (EDS). That requirement, which is retroactive to Jan. 1, presents a host of challenges as supplemental benefit vendors may not have the kind of detailed information CMS is seeking. And it raises broader questions about how the data will be used.

Supplemental benefits have been on the rise since plan year 2019, when CMS’s reinterpreted definition of “primarily health-related” enabled MAOs to include benefits like adult day health services, support for caregivers of enrollees and therapeutic massage in their plan benefit packages. In 2020, MAOs began offering Special Supplemental Benefits for the Chronically Ill (SSBCI), a category of “non-primarily health related” items and services that can be made available to certain beneficiaries. According to health care research and advisory services firm ATI Advisory, the number of plans offering expanded primarily health-related supplemental benefits and/or non-primarily health-related SSBCI grew from 628 plans in 2020 to 2,334 plans in 2024.

A recent report commissioned by the Better Medicare Alliance (BMA) estimated that Medicare Advantage per-member per-month (PMPM) payments could drop by 1.0% if CMS finalizes proposals contained in the 2025 Advance Notice. It also estimated that the PMPM value of supplemental benefits, or reductions to premiums and cost sharing, would decline by an average of $33 or more. In its preliminary rate notice released in January, CMS projected that MA plans could see an average revenue increase of 3.70%, which included an estimated a -2.45% revenue decline due to a combination of risk model changes that are being phased in and fee-for-service Medicare normalization, an effective FFS growth rate of 2.44%, and an average risk score trend of 3.86%. The report, prepared by Berkeley Research Group (BRG), projected that MA medical cost inflation will rise by 4% to 6% in 2025 and that CMS’s estimated pay increase will not adequately cover increased medical expenses. Citing a National Association of Insurance Commissioners analysis, BRG pointed out that PMPM medical costs in MA increased by an estimated 7.3% for the first nine months of 2023, while recent insurer earnings reports suggest medical costs will continue to grow in 2024.

With respective increases of 10.8% and 10.7% in 2023, health care spending on prescription drugs and home health care rose the fastest out of seven health care categories analyzed in a recent Altarum report.

Total national health care expenditures grew by 6.2% last year, while gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.3% year over year. In December 2023, health care spending accounted for 17.2% of GDP and has remained below 17.5% since January 2022. About 84% of health spending was attributed to personal health care, half of which was spent on hospital care and physician and clinical services.

A study published this month in JAMA Health Forum indicates people with diabetes can see short-term health benefits from enrolling in plans offering preventive drug lists (PDLs) that sharply reduce or eliminate cost-sharing for certain medications. However, the study’s lead author and a pharmacy benefits consultant tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT, that more work needs to be done to evaluate whether such programs are cost-effective for employer-sponsored plans.

Still, they were encouraged with the results, which found that people who switched to plans with PDLs had an 8.4% reduction in acute, preventable diabetes complication days compared with the non-PDL group. In addition, there was a 10.4% reduction in preventable diabetes complication days among members from lower-income areas who switched to PDLs.

As the second batch of publicly traded insurers posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial results, continued utilization pressures in Medicare Advantage remained a prominent theme during earnings calls held in the first two weeks of February. Such pressures prompted Humana Inc. to slash its outlook for 2024, but this month only CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna lowered its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, while The Cigna Group — which is planning to sell its relatively small MA business — raised its outlook.

CVS Health Corp. on Feb. 7 reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.12 and full-year adjusted EPS of $8.74. Consolidated revenue grew 11.9% year over year to $93.8 billion, while revenue for the Health Care Benefits segment, which includes Aetna’s MA business, increased 16% to nearly $27 billion. CVS Health said it added 1.3 million members in 2023, which reflected growth across multiple product lines.

Centene Corp.’s results for the fourth quarter of 2023 were largely positive, earning mild praise from Wall Street analysts. While Centene was the latest health insurer to face higher-than-expected Medicare Advantage utilization, executives claimed that the firm’s MA performance was far less worrisome than that of its peers — an argument that analysts seemed to accept.

Centene’s Medicare medical loss ratio (MLR) for the quarter was an eye-popping 95.3%, up from 87.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 780 basis points (bps). According to Jefferies analyst David Windley, that figure was 510 bps above Wall Street consensus projection for Centene’s Medicare book of business. However, during a Feb. 6 earnings call, Centene CEO Sarah London and Chief Financial Officer Drew Asher both insisted that the high MLR figure was not a reason for concern, was not caused by the same factors that drove high MLRs for MA peer firms like Humana Inc., and was accounted for in 2024 guidance.

As health care costs continue to rise, Congress may take up site-neutral payment reform or other cost control measures in coming years, if a Jan. 31 House of Representatives hearing is any indication. The House recently passed a bill, the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act (LCMTA), that includes limited site neutrality and PBM reforms, but some Congress members floated more aggressive cost-control interventions in the health care system — including tougher scrutiny on Medicare Advantage plans.

During the Jan. 31 hearing, the leaders of the House Energy & Commerce’s Health subcommittee — chairman Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and ranking member Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) — both said that the LCMTA didn’t go far enough to control costs.

Although a recent Humana Inc. regulatory filing had already prepared the market for a lackluster fourth-quarter earnings report, Wall Street analysts appeared to be shellshocked on Jan. 25, when the Medicare Advantage-focused insurer detailed just how much of a financial hit it expects to take from an unanticipated care utilization surge.

“Worst case scenario plays out,” Justin Lake of Wolfe Research wrote in a note to investors published shortly after Humana released its financial results — which included a newly revised 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) outlook of “approximately $16.”

Total U.S. health care spending increased by 4.1% in 2022, hitting $4.5 trillion, according to CMS. The growth rate appeared to return to the average annual rate of the 2010s, while the share of the gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to health care (17.3%) also fell to pre-pandemic levels.

The rise in overall health care expenditures reflected faster growth in spending for administration costs, retail prescription drugs and long-term services from 2021 to 2022, which was offset by a decline in federal public health spending, according to an analysis by KFF. As the pandemic entered its third year, public health spending dropped by $33 billion compared to 2020.

Elevance Health, Inc. reported stronger results for its 2023 fourth quarter earnings than its other publicly traded managed care peers so far, driven by relatively low utilization across its diverse mix of business lines. The results received positive reviews from Wall Street analysts, who contrasted the strong results with other carriers’ struggles.

Elevance, the for-profit Blue Cross and Blue Shield affiliate formerly known as Anthem, experienced lower care utilization than other managed care heavyweights like UnitedHealth Group and Humana Inc. — something that analysts were quick to note in their coverage of Elevance’s results. Elevance has substantive business in commercial insurance, Medicare and Medicaid.