Pandemic’s Long Tail Will Shape 2023 Premiums

July 8

Researchers from the American Academy of Actuaries expect the most notable factors in 2023’s health insurance premium rate-setting will be COVID-19 variants, the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies in the individual marketplace, the resumption of Medicaid eligibility redeterminations, inflation and provider labor shortages — a combination of public health, policy and economic factors that represent the long tail of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 is still difficult to model. New variants to the virus and regional outbreaks mean that plan-level analysis is fraught. But the cost of hospitalization and a consistent standard of care mean that plans have a useful base for modeling.

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Health Plan Weekly

Peter Johnson

Peter has worked as a journalist since 2011 and has covered health care since 2020. At AIS Health, Peter covers trends in finance, business and policy that affect the health insurance and pharma sectors. For Health Plan Weekly, he covers all aspects of the U.S. health insurance sector, including employer-sponsored insurance, Medicaid managed care, Medicare Advantage and the Affordable Care Act individual marketplaces. In Radar on Drug Benefits, Peter covers the operations of (and conflicts between) pharmacy benefit managers and pharmaceutical manufacturers, with a particular focus on pricing dynamics and market access. Before joining AIS Health, Peter covered transportation, public safety and local government for various outlets in Seattle, his hometown and current place of residence. He graduated with a B.A. from Colby College.