Premiums

HealthCare.gov enrollees have more health plan options in 2025 compared to previous years, yet the average benchmark plan premium in states that use the federal enrollment platform increased modestly, according to CMS.

In most states, the open enrollment period for Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage runs from Nov. 1, 2024, to Jan. 15, 2025. Out of the 31 states that are using HealthCare.gov, eight have more Qualified Health Plan (QHP) issuers in 2025 than in 2024, and 97% of enrollees have access to three or more issuers, compared to 78% in 2021. Seven HealthCare.gov states have counties with a single QHP issuer in 2025, compared to nine states in 2024. Georgia stopped using HealthCare.gov in 2024 and transitioned to a state-run exchange, and Illinois is scheduled to move to a state-based marketplace for the 2026 plan year.

Premiums for many stand-alone Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans will go up moderately in 2025, while the number of PDP options for beneficiaries will drop significantly, according to AIS Health’s analysis of the recently released CMS Medicare Advantage and Part D landscape files.

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, ushered in a host of policy changes to the Part D benefit that will take effect in 2025: Most notably, Medicare Part D beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket drug costs will be capped at $2,000 annually and Part D plan sponsors will be responsible for 60% (up from 20%) of any costs their enrollees incur beyond that cap. As a result, the Medicare Part D national average monthly bid amount (NAMBA) is projected to increase by $115, nearly 180%, to $179.45 in 2025.

Employers expect their health care costs will increase next year at a higher rate than in previous years, as they continue to deal with inflation and other headwinds, according to recent surveys and database analyses from major benefits brokers. Actuaries from two of those firms tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT, that the increases are being driven by a few factors, including higher reimbursement for hospitals and providers, a rise in care utilization now that the coronavirus pandemic is over, and a higher percentage of people using expensive specialty medications and GLP-1 drugs.

Aon predicts the average cost for employer-sponsored health plans will increase by 9% in 2025, up from a 5.8% increase this year. Meanwhile, WTW projects a 7.7% increase in health care costs next year compared with a 6.9% increase this year and a 6.5% increase last year. Mercer anticipates a 7% increase in costs for employer plans in 2025.

Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies reduce out-of-pocket premiums mostly for adults ages 50 and older and for those living in states where monthly premiums for ACA marketplace plans are high, according to a recent Urban Institute study.

Enhanced advance premium tax credits (APTCs) were initially implemented as part of the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act and extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act. They offer more generous subsidies than were available under the original ACA rules for people with incomes at or below 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL), which for 2024 are $60,240 for an individual and $81,761 for a couple. Additionally, the enhanced APTCs limit premium contributions to 8.5% of income for marketplace enrollees with incomes above 400% of FPL.

With five weeks to go until election day, the vice presidential candidates sparred over health care during their Oct. 1 debate. There were no new revelations, but the Affordable Care Act was top of mind for both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), despite some industry observers’ belief that Republicans might want the candidates to steer clear of any major reforms.

Vance briefly touched on his idea to move higher-risk people into separate risk pools in the individual market and allow states to “experiment a little bit” on coverage for healthier people and those with pre-existing conditions. Vance claimed protections for pre-existing conditions would remain in place but that he would also try to “make the health insurance marketplace function a little bit better.”

Although the November elections may alter the balance of power in Congress and change which party controls the White House, Democratic lawmakers this week introduced legislation that would advance a key policy priority for Affordable Care Act supporters and health insurers alike: Making enhanced ACA subsidies permanent.

One health policy expert says the timing of the move makes sense, despite the imminent elections.

“It’s good to kind of get the bill on the table and get people talking about the issue,” says Katherine Hempstead, Ph.D., senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. She also tells AIS Health, a division of MMIT, that it’s important to “raise the profile of…how there will be chaotic [rate] filing next year if there’s uncertainty about whether the tax credits are going to be there or not.”

Republican lawmakers in an Aug. 26 letter to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) criticized the rollout of a demonstration program that is intended to ease Medicare Part D premiums for beneficiaries and help stabilize the market but could cost taxpayers billions of dollars. It is the latest salvo from politicians since CMS announced the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration on July 29, the same day it revealed the national average monthly bid amount (NAMBA) would increase by nearly 180% next year.

Debra Devereaux, an executive consultant with Rebellis Group, speculates that some stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs) “must have had eye-popping bids” to prompt CMS to launch the program. She suggests that PDPs likely increased their premiums for next year to offset major changes that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and will result in plans shouldering significantly more financial risk. The demonstration program is only for PDPs and does not include Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) plans.

People enrolled in Affordable Care Act marketplace plans had access to 40% of their local physicians in-network, on average, and those who enrolled in more expensive plans generally could access broader networks, according to a KFF analysis.

The analysis studied the percentage of physicians participating in the provider networks of Qualified Health Plans offered in the individual market in the federal and state ACA marketplaces in 2021. It found that only 4% of ACA exchange enrollees were in plans that included more than three-quarters of local doctors in-network, while 23% of enrollees were in a narrow network plan that included fewer than a quarter of the local doctors.

Most people enrolled in Affordable Care Act exchange plans had in-network access to fewer than half of clinicians in their area in 2021, according to a KFF study published on Aug. 26. Matthew Rae, the report’s lead author, tells AIS Health the number of physicians in networks varies widely even within states and counties, yet it is still difficult for consumers to compare and choose plans.

Rae adds that insurers often limit their exchange networks to keep their costs down and competitive in a crowded field, where often dozens of plans vie for enrollees. He points out that insurers seek to price their offerings based on the second-lowest cost plan in the marketplace’s silver category, which is linked to the premium tax credits that most enrollees receive. Plans that are more expensive than the second-lowest cost silver option often only get a small number of enrollees, according to Rae.

Elevance Health, Inc. and private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R) announced on Aug. 14 the formation of Mosaic Health, a primary care delivery platform focused on value-based arrangements with payers. The companies revealed in April their plans to merge CD&R-owned apree health and Millenium Physician Group with primary care assets owned by Elevance through its Carelon Health division. Elevance CEO Gail Boudreaux said in April that the company would own a “significant minority position” in Mosaic, while Chief Financial Officer Mark Kaye said Mosaic would have more than $4 billion in annual revenue when formed.