Premiums

Washington’s “public option” has had a substantive downward impact on premium rates on the state’s individual exchange, according to state officials — encouraging news for policymakers who have tinkered with the insurance program after it disappointed in the first two years after it launched. Experts tell AIS Health, a division of MMIT, that the results bode well for other states’ public options, even though Washington is still adjusting important elements like network scope and reimbursement rates.

The Washington State Health Care Authority (HCA), one of the state agencies that administers the public option — called Cascade Select — said that in a February report enrollment more than tripled for plan year 2023, increasing from 8,000 in 2022 to 27,000 people statewide. The same report also said that “Cascade Select plans are the lowest cost Silver premiums available on the Exchange in 25 counties, up from 13 counties in 2022.” HCA said Cascade Select plans’ average gross premium rates this year decreased by 3%, compared to average rate increases of 8% for other exchange plans. According to a December 2022 HCA report, Cascade Select plans are available in 34 of 39 counties, up from 19 in 2021.

By the end of 2021, gross margins per enrollee in the Medicare Advantage market had returned to pre-pandemic levels, and were significantly higher than gross margins in other health insurance markets, according to a recent Kaiser Family Foundation analysis. In 2021, gross margins for MA plans averaged $1,730 per enrollee, more than double the margins in the individual market ($745), the fully insured group ($689) and the Medicaid managed care market ($768). Gross margins for the individual market and group markets were 36% and 17% lower, respectively, in 2021 than they were in 2019, whereas the gross margins per enrollee for Medicaid managed care plans were higher in 2021 than pre-pandemic.

Two weeks ago, CMS in its 2024 Advance Notice projected that Medicare Advantage organizations can expect an average estimated change in revenue of 1.03%, when accounting for underlying factors. Although the industry had been bracing for a much smaller rate increase than the robust 8% CMS predicted this time last year, a deeper dive into the notice has plan sponsors and providers understandably concerned about potential rate reductions. That’s largely because the annual rate notice, which often includes proposed changes to the risk adjustment model used to determine plan payments, proposes a substantial redesign of the model.

“This is the most radical change to the risk adjustment model since it started,” asserts risk adjustment consultant Richard Lieberman, who estimates that the Part C CMS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) model has gone through “four major iterations” since it was first used to adjust plan payments in 2004. One significant change in the proposed 2024 CMS-HCC model is that it has 115 payment HCCs, up from 86 in the current model, which was updated in 2020. In addition, CMS proposed moving from using ICD-9 diagnoses codes to the “more commonly used” ICD-10, as well as shifting to more recent underlying fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare data years to reflect 2018 diagnoses and 2019 expenditures (from 2014 diagnoses and 2015 expenditures).

The U.S. Dept. of Defense recently awarded $136 billion in contracts for its TRICARE program that provides health care benefits to military service members, retirees and their families. The contract award for the West region went to TriWest Healthcare Alliance of Phoenix, which is partnering with Regence health plans and Health Care Service Corp. to administer the program. Humana Government Business Inc. will continue to serve the East region when the next contracts begin in 2024. Currently, Health Net Federal Services LLC, a subsidiary of Centene Corp., covers the West region with about 2.8 million beneficiaries, and Humana covers the East region with more than 6.8 million enrollees. In 2024, six states in the East region — Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Wisconsin, with a total of 1.5 million beneficiaries — will transfer to the West region in order to balance out the number of beneficiaries served by the two regions.

Health care transactions, particularly in the provider space, appear poised for another banner year, even as inflation, rising interest rates and a possible recession slow mergers & acquisitions (M&A) across the rest of the economy. Some providers are in financial crisis and seem sure to consolidate with each other or be taken over by private equity entities, while health insurers seem poised to spend pandemic-related windfalls.

Generally, health insurers are in good financial health. The health insurance business is somewhat protected from inflation, as carriers can pass through rising prices to commercial plan sponsors. Meanwhile, risk in government books of business is ultimately borne by the public. In addition, many carriers have plenty of cash on hand, meaning they are also insulated from rising interest rates. In spring 2020, when COVID-19 hospitalizations hit their first nationwide peak and local governments shuttered many businesses and in some cases barred nonessential medical procedures, health care utilization cratered. Utilization did not approach normal levels until the end of that year, and so premium revenues far outstripped claims paid for most insurers.

The U.S. Dept. of Defense recently awarded $136 billion in contracts for its TRICARE program that provides health care benefits to military service members, retirees and their families. The contract award for the West region went to TriWest Healthcare Alliance of Phoenix, which is partnering with Regence health plans and Health Care Service Corp. to administer the program. Humana Government Business Inc. will continue to serve the East region when the next contracts begin in 2024. Currently, Health Net Federal Services LLC, a subsidiary of Centene Corp., covers the West region with about 2.8 million beneficiaries, and Humana covers the East region with more than 6.8 million enrollees. In 2024, six states in the East region — Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Wisconsin, with a total of 1.5 million beneficiaries — will transfer to the West region in order to balance out the number of beneficiaries served by the two regions.

Nearly 11.5 million people selected or were automatically reenrolled in health plans for 2023 on HealthCare.gov as of Dec. 15, 2022, an 18% increase over the same time period in 2021, according to CMS. Although the average premium for benchmark silver plans (before accounting for tax credits) increased by 4.1% in 2023 after four years of declines, enrollees receiving subsidies may find their net premiums for low-cost bronze, silver and gold plans are lower than last year, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis.

While Americans are shopping for 2023 Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, CMS is already looking ahead to the next plan year, as the agency on Dec. 12 issued its annual omnibus proposed rule governing marketplace plans for 2024.

Experts say the policy shifts likely to draw the most industry attention are the newly proposed limits on non-standardized exchange plans, which build on regulations that have already drawn the ire of health insurers. However, CMS seems to give a nod to potential pushback by offering up an alternative means of limiting the dizzying array of plan options consumers now face.

The average annual premium for employer-sponsored health insurance in 2022 was $7,911 for single coverage and $22,463 for family coverage, similar to the average premiums last year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation 2022 Employer Health Benefits Survey. On average, employees contributed 17% toward single coverage premiums and 28% toward family coverage premiums. Among employees at small firms, 33% of them chose a plan where the employer paid the entire premium for single coverage, compared with only 6% at large firms. Meanwhile, 31% of small firm workers were in a plan that required them to contribute more than half of the premium for family coverage.

The average annual premium for employer-sponsored health insurance in 2022 was $7,911 for single coverage and $22,463 for family coverage, similar to the average premiums last year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation 2022 Employer Health Benefits Survey. On average, employees contributed 17% toward single coverage premiums and 28% toward family coverage premiums. Among employees at small firms, 33% of them chose a plan where the employer paid the entire premium for single coverage, compared with only 6% at large firms. Meanwhile, 31% of small firm workers were in a plan that required them to contribute more than half of the premium for family coverage.